Sunday, February 27, 2011

Two years of the as yet interminable Thread

So that's two years, 175.76 subThreads, 135,539 comments.
Year Two alone accounted for 144.76 of the subThreads and 107,490 of the comments (= 79%).
Here's the overview:
Fig. 1: [click to enlarge] Comment count for the first two years of Pharyngula's Endless Thread. The colorful vertical lines mark each of the first 50 or so subThreads, but I gave up on that shit. Red threadmarkers with adherent vestigial green threads mark anastomoses. The pink threadmarkers are the 1- and 2-year marks. Somewhere in there in light blue are the parallel subsubThreads CXXVb and CLXIIb.

Up, up up. It's a long way from last year for damn sure.

Commenting rates over Year Two's subThreads varied from 150 to 813 comments /d (Fig. 2)

Fig 2: [click to enlarge] Commenting rates for each subThread, plotted at end dates. Pink markers delineate years 1 and 2. Black line is a 3-point moving average to de-emphasize individual data. Red curve is a best-fit third-order polynomial.

Pretty variable, but possibly stabilizing at a long-term mean of about 370 comments/d.

SubThreads of Year Two lasted an average of 2.57 d (Fig. 3).

Fig. 3: [click to enlarge] Duration of each subThread. Note logarithmic Y-axis. Conventions as in Fig. 2.

Interestingly, the very first subThread of Year Three was the first ever to come in at less than 1 d.

Finally, the relationship between duration and commenting rate continued to be well described by a power curve (Fig.4).

Fig. 4: [click to enlarge] Log-log plot of subThread duration vs. commenting rate.

I still don't know what, if anything, this means. However, it seems that less than 5% of the total variance in duration is attributable to factors other than commenting rate (e.g., PZ changing the portcullis-target, PZ getting drunk, PZ's general poopyheadedness, etc.).


Anonymous said...

I wish you wouldn't quit.
I like your statistics.


Sili said...

Please don't quit. It's so nice to have someone paying attention.

(Could you post your numbers somewhere for others to play around with?)